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2022

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06

Analysis of Risk Perception Diffusion Mechanism of Emerging Technologies


Abstract:The arrival of the fourth industrial revolution has given birth to the rapid development of emerging technologies. While enjoying the convenience brought by new technologies, the public will have a certain degree of panic and resistance to the unknown risks caused by emerging technologies, and spread through specific channels, resulting in the coupling effect of risk perception. Therefore, mastering the diffusion law of emerging technology risk perception in social system has important theoretical and practical significance for the governance of emerging technology risk. This paper defines the coupling concept of risk perception diffusion, analyzes the "coupling-evolution" diffusion mechanism of emerging technology risk perception in the social system, constructs a quantitative model of social diffusion of risk perception, and discusses the coupling effects of internal and external factors on the diffusion of emerging technology risk perception and the efficiency of risk perception social diffusion through numerical simulation. The results show that with the increase of individual psychological distance to emerging technology risk and the degree of public participation in emerging technology risk management, the superimposed effect of risk perception diffusion in the social system is gradually weakened, the independent effect is gradually enhanced, and the diffusion efficiency of risk perception is gradually reduced. With the improvement of individual trust in communicators, the attraction effect of risk perception diffusion in the social system is gradually highlighted.

 

Key words:emerging technology; risk perception; social communication; coupling process; system evolution

 

Abstract:The advent of the fourth industrial revolution has spurred the rapid development of new technologies. While enjoying the convenience brought by the new technology, the public will have certain panic and resistance to the unknown risks caused by the emerging technology, which will be diffused through specific channels and generate the coupling effect of risk perception. Therefore, grasping the social contagion rule of emerging technology risk perception has great theoretical and practical significance for the governance of emerging technology risk. The concept of risk perception contagion coupling is defined, and the contagion mechanism of emerging technology risk perception in the social system is also analyzed based on the "coupling-evolution " process in this paper. Meanwhile, the social contagion quantitative model of risk perception is built. By using numerical simulation, the different impact of internal and external factors on the coupled effect and efficiency of emerging technology risk perception social contagion. The results show that with the increase and deepening of individual psychological distance to emerging technology risks and the degree of public participation in emerging technology risk governance, the superposition effect of risk perception contagion in the social system gradually weakens, the independent effect gradually increases, and the social contagion efficiency of risk perception gradually decreases. With the improvement of individuals' trust in information sources, the attraction effect of social contagion of risk perception becomes increasingly prominent.

 

Key words:emerging technology; risk perception; social contagion; coupling process; system evolution

 

Author: Sun Dian, Xue Lan, Zhang Lupeng

Author: Emergency Management Research Base, School of Public Administration, Tsinghua University

School of Public Administration, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

The full text has been published in Scientific Research, Issue 1, 2021.

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