Abstract:How to find technology opportunities from the process of cross-integration of multi-domain technologies and predict innovative technology portfolio relationships is of great value to the research and development of new products and services for enterprises. In view of the problems that the existing research only identifies technical opportunities in this field, the limitations of traditional extrapolation methods and the misalignment of results caused by data time lag, the paper proposes to realize the future-oriented research on technology integration opportunities based on the extensive acquisition of multi-domain technology solutions, and establishes a research framework for technology integration opportunities from the perspective of systematic knowledge gene, which improves the scientificity and accuracy of technology opportunity discovery. Firstly, the structural topic model (structural topic model, STM) method is used to extract product functional requirements from online reviews as the trait characteristics of technical gene expression. Secondly, the subject-action-object (SAO) phrase is combined with the semantic analysis method of technology-relationship-technology (technology-relationship-technology, TRT) phrase to extract multi-domain technical genes from patents, finally, the STM method is used to identify the technical categories with fusion tendency in the patent, compare them with the technical elements in the gene pool, and screen the target genes with fusion tendency and potential to be expressed as product characteristics from the gene pool in combination with expert knowledge as potential technology fusion opportunities, and fuse the target genes with the original technical scheme of the product to verify the technology fusion opportunities. Taking the elderly intelligent wearable fall alarm product as the research object, 85 target genes with fusion prospect were excavated, that is, 85 technology fusion opportunities. The results show that the introduction of knowledge gene improves the feasibility and effectiveness of the technology fusion innovation process, and the prediction results are more accurate.

Key words:technology integration; technology opportunity; knowledge gene; elderly smart wear

Abstract: How to discover technological opportunities from the process of cross-integration of technologies in multiple fields and predict innovative technology portfolio relationships is of great value to the R&D of new products and services for enterprises. In view of the existing research only identifying technological opportunities from a single technological field, as well as the limitations of traditional extrapolation methods, and the inaccuracy of results caused by data time lag, this research proposes to be oriented on functional requirements, realize future-oriented technology convergence opportunities research based on extensive acquisition of multi-domain technological solutions, and establish a systematic research framework for technological convergence opportunities from the perspective of knowledge genes. This framework regards technology as a knowledge gene, called "technological gene", takes user functional requirements as traits of technology gene expression, and uses the idea of screening target genes in genetic engineering to predict technological fusion opportunities from multiple fields and potential technological relationships, which improves the scientificity and accuracy of technological opportunity discovery. By constructing a technology gene bank and drawing a knowledge gene map to grasp the law of technology fusion, the uncertainty of the technology combination relationship in the process of technology fusion is overcome. The specific process is as follows: Firstly, the STM(Structural Topic Model) method is used to extract product functional requirements from online reviews as the traits of technical gene expression; Secondly, SAO(Subject-Action-Object) and TRT(Technology-Relationship-Technology) semantic analysis methods are integrated to extract the multi-domain technical genes from patents, obtain technical gene characteristic elements and complete the construction of gene bank. Drawing a technical gene map according to the emergence time of technology genes, exploring whether the evolution process of technology genes conform to the basic characteristics of knowledge genes, and verifying the scientificity and rationality of technology fusion from the perspective of knowledge genes; Finally, the STM method is used to identify the technology categories with fusion tendency in patents. Compare them with the technical gene characteristic elements in the gene bank, screen the target genes according to the screening principle. The screening principle is to select technologies that have not yet appeared in this technical field, but have the possibility of meeting product functional requirements or producing higher-quality fusion solutions, and have a tendency to convergence. The target gene here is a potential technological fusion opportunity. Integrate the target gene with the original technical solution of the product,develop a new fusion technical solution, combine expert knowledge to identify the feasibility of the fusion technical solution, and verify the technological fusion opportunity. Using elderly smart wearable fall alarm products as the research object, 85 target genes with prospects for fusion have been discovered, that is, 85 technological convergence opportunities. The results show that the introduction of knowledge genes improves the feasibility and effectiveness of the technological convergence innovation process. The prediction results are more accurate and practical; Obtaining future-oriented technology convergence opportunities from multiple fields can effectively solve practical problems and provide a systematic and reliable technology convergence innovation management theory and method for enterprises to conduct research and development of new products or services.

Keyword：technology convergence; technology opportunity; knowledge genes; elderly smart wear